Grey Model of Power Load Forecasting Based on Particle Swarm Optimization

Author

Dongxiao Niu ; Bo Zhang ; Ming Meng ; Gong Cheng

Author_Institution

Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding

Volume

2

fYear

0

fDate

0-0 0

Firstpage

7651

Lastpage

7655

Abstract

According to the speciality of power load development and the limitation of traditional grey model GM(1,1), vector alpha was for first introduced into the calculation formula of background value array. Thus a new model GM(1,1,alpha) which bears higher adaptability in various kinds of power load forecasting is proposed. Then, particle swarm optimization was adopted to solve the value of alpha as this algorithm has the virtue of optimum-seeking and high-quality solution. Therefore a particle swarm optimization based grey model PSOGM is finally built. The practical example indicates the PSOGM model has the characteristic of better precision and wider application field

Keywords

grey systems; load forecasting; load management; particle swarm optimisation; PSOGM model; background value array; grey model; particle swarm optimization; power load forecasting; Computer languages; Economic forecasting; Electronic mail; Energy management; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Mathematical model; Particle swarm optimization; Power generation economics; Predictive models; PSOGM model; grey model; particle swarm optimization; power load forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Intelligent Control and Automation, 2006. WCICA 2006. The Sixth World Congress on

Conference_Location

Dalian

Print_ISBN

1-4244-0332-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/WCICA.2006.1713455

Filename

1713455