Prediction of Seasonal Trends in Cellular Dropped Call Probability

Several physical mechanisms that appear capable of producing seasonal variations in cellular dropped call occurrence frequency are identified and discussed. The ability of seasonal variations in atmospheric refractive index to affect cochannel interference levels is emphasized in particular, and a simple analytical model illustrating this possibility is derived. Radiosonde measurements from three northern and three southern hemisphere locations are used to provide input data to the model. At temperate latitudes, refractive index profiles favoring maximum dropped call probability in either hemisphere typically occur about 4 to 8 weeks following the local summer solstice. Further work is needed to determine whether or not the predicted seasonal trends actually do occur, and if so, whether the correct explanation for them has been found