Probabilistic interpretation of LDN confidence ellipses with reference to forensic applications

Data from lightning detection networks is often used for forensic purposes: to validate insurance claims or even to determine the cause of death. Stroke location and current estimates are subject to measurement error, and the dilution of precision is reported in terms of a median confidence ellipse and χ² distribution. A method is presented to derive the probability density function from the reported statistics, and hence calculate cumulative probability densities. Two hypothetical cases are presented, with real lightning detection network data, to illustrate the obstacles constraining direct forensic application of the data.