Scenario Analysis and System Dynamics in New Emerging Technology Research: Case Mobile Peer-to-Peer Content Distribution

This paper studies the use of scenario analysis and system dynamics in researching mobile peer-to-peer content distribution as a new emerging technology. Scenario analysis bounds the uncertainty related to the alternative futures of the technology by defining different scenarios. System dynamics is used to build a quantitative model based on the scenarios. During the research process four learning scenarios and a quantitative model depicting a dynamic mobile peer-to-peer file sharing ecosystem are constructed. As a result we conclude that the usage of scenario analysis is favorable in researching mobile peer-to-peer content distribution as a new emerging technology while the applicability of system dynamics can be questioned.