The mixture of generalized gaussian model for modeling of the load duration curve: Case of the Tunisian power system

This paper proposes a new estimation technique of the load duration curve (LDC) which is capable to estimate the LDC of any shape and form. In the paper we develop a probabilistic approach, to deal with the heterogeneity and variability of the load distribution based on the estimation of the hourly peak load distribution by mixture of generalized Gaussian distribution (MGG). The model has more flexibility to approximate and to adapt the shape of load data. The update of the model parameters is carried out using an extension of the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical results, obtained from the Tunisian power system indicate that MGG technique is accurate, efficient and robust.