Quantitative Evaluation of Oil and Gas Resources: A Geological Analogy Model Based on Delphi Method

One trend of oil and gas prediction and evaluation is computer-aided quantitative approach. Aiming at complicated factors and numerous parameters of oil and gas resources estimation, the method with combination of geological analogy model and probabilistic model and corresponding flowcharts were introduced. The quantitative estimation process was performed by using Delphi method and Monte Carlo calculation method to give a curve of inverse cumulative probability to support decision-making. Geological analogy method based on probabilistic model has better adaptability than the traditional analogy method. The final comprehensive probability curve of quantitative estimation of oil and gas resources can be obtained, which has a good practical significance.