Research on the Forecast of Electricity Consumption Based on Autoregressive Model

With the rapid growth of the national economy, the electricity supply presents severe shortage, which directly affects the economic development and the normal life of people. Electricity supply has become a restricting factor on sustainable development of national economy. According to the recent situation of electricity demand, this paper uses time series analysis on its consumer to do scientific prediction, and put forward to prevent future electricity shortages, we should establish power early warning system, adopt time-of-use electricity price for a short term, and adjust the industrial structure, especially the internal structure of industrial products. Then we can promote economic growth mode to transform from extensive to intensive, which can improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Energy saving will be a long-term strategy policy of national economic development from the point of view of the long-term development of the electricity industry.