The emergency decision-making: How to trigger the level of emergency response plan with forecast updates

Author

Yu Hui ; Liu Guanmei ; Liu Yang

Author_Institution

Sch. of Econ. & Bus. Adm., Chongqing Univ., Chongqing, China

fYear

2012

fDate

2-4 July 2012

Firstpage

94

Lastpage

97

Abstract

This paper explores the problem that how managers activate contingency plans by stages under disruptions. We reckon that the expected total cost will be a minimum when the start level of the contingency plan matches the level of the actual loss. An autoregressive model is constructed to give the optimal policy of activating contingency plans by stages. Then the numerical simulation results assure the effectiveness and the influence factors of the optimal policy are given.

Keywords

autoregressive processes; costing; decision making; emergency services; personnel; strategic planning; autoregressive model; contingency plan; emergency decision making; emergency response plan; expected total cost; forecast updates; numerical simulation; optimal policy; Educational institutions; Logistics; Numerical models; Numerical simulation; Presses; Vectors; autoregressive model; contingency plans; emergency management; forecast updates;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), 2012 9th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Shanghai

Print_ISBN

978-1-4577-2024-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICSSSM.2012.6252198

Filename

6252198