Cascade Reservoirs Optimizing Regulation Functions Based on System Identification

Stochastic dynamic programming in solving large-scale cascade reservoirs regulation may lead to the curse of dimensionality. This paper applies to system identification theory, by which large-scale cascade reservoirs operation problem is described as an identification system, then select the appropriate equivalence criterion, identify the most similar model to the tested system according to the samples of deterministic optimization progress so as to set up the reservoirs optimal regulation functions to simulate the regulation. Identified reservoirs optimal regulation functions combine the strength of operation chart and optimal algorithm and can overcome the curse of dimensionality. This paper took advantage of 48-year long series of run-off, simulated and calculated the power generation of 14 cascade hydropower stations. With a good simulation result, simulation program can represent the characteristics of optimal regulation of cascade reservoir, which proves compensation benefits of the upstream reservoir to the downstream cascade reservoirs.