Risk analysis techniques in defence procurement

The author explains the risk analysis techniques used by the Accountancy, Estimating and Pricing Services (AEPS), Ministry of Defence, Procurement Executive. The aim of the author is to provide a convenient reference document for procurement staff rather than to advance the theory. Topics covered include identification of risk areas, approaches to risk analysis and strategies for risk reduction and control. The choice of risk analysis technique depends on the definition, scale and phase of the project. All techniques, however, require a systematic approach, so a generalised methodology for risk analysis is proposed. Whilst risk analysis methods and models are valuable tools, the right answers still depend upon judgment and specialist expertise