Modeling Dengue Fever Subject to Temperature Change

Mosquito-borne diseases cause considerable human mortality and morbidity around the globe, particularly in tropical countries. Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, malaria and yellow fever exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. This leads to the hypothesis that episodes of mosquito-borne diseases are related to climatic conditions. It is observed that global atmospheric temperature has increased significantly over the last decades due to global warming, leading to a concern that mosquito-borne diseases may become more prevalent with the increase in temperature and precipitation. The changes in climate are expected to disrupt seasonal weather patterns, to increase the incidence rate of these diseases and to cause the disease to spread over a broader geographical range. This paper investigates the potential effect of climate change on mosquito population distribution and on the incidence rate of dengue fever.