Forecasting Cost Trends for Carrier Ethernet

Ethernet is transforming from a LAN network solution into a technology which can be used within a carrier network. Ethernet is currently especially envisaged within the metro part of the network as a cost efficient replacement of ATM/FR and SDH. This step requires additional functionality built into the Ethernet technology in order to maintain operability and reliability of the network. Considering the swap to metro-networks and the additional functionality, it is not always clear how this will impact the equipment costs and cost-evolution. In this paper, we propose an approach towards deducing a likely cost-evolution of the Ethernet technology by combining cost forecasting information with simulation, emulation and dimensioning results. The resulting cost forecasts are dependent on network topology size and structure but also traffic evolution. Finally the results show how a conscientious choice of carrier Ethernet solution and functionalities help to constrain network costs for predictable customer base and traffic growth.