Price and supply constraints on Te and In photovoltaics

Supply and price constraints on Te and In for future large scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment are discussed. It is argued that the PV industry is growing so quickly that adaptations in Te and In supply and device design will be too slow to keep up. In success CdTe and CIGS technologies will ultimately guarantee their eventual failure. This will be by pushing Te and In prices beyond the threshold for profitability, as recently with polysilicon prices. Other topics discussed are the colorful role of smugglers, polluters and cartels in the present supply chain and the upside, a possible evolutionary path to earth-abundant, non-toxic chalcogenide technology.