The Assessment of Supply Chain Risk Based on Scenario Analysis

Quantitative analysis and risk management of supply chain has become more and more difficult with the increasing complexity of the supply chain network structure and the more uncertainties of the external environment. In order to quantitatively assess the level of risk in the supply chain, scenario analysis method is introduced in this paper, by identifying risk factors, building different scenarios with predictions of possible future events, and taking the fuzzy synthetic evaluation model assesses the risk level of each factor under different scenarios. To illustrate the application of the model, this paper takes a company as an example and shows that application of the scenario analysis method can effectively help companies to assess possible risks in the supply chain and measure the influences of the risk factors, so that the company can find out weakness in the supply chain and control risk in advance.