Forecasting electricity demand using Grey-Markov model

Author

Wang, Xi-ping ; Meng, Ming

Author_Institution

Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding

Volume

3

fYear

2008

fDate

12-15 July 2008

Firstpage

1244

Lastpage

1248

Abstract

In order to improve the forecasting precision of the electric-power demand, a Grey-Markov model for forecasting the electric-power demand is established. The model combines the advantages of both Grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the Grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the Grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the Grey-Markov model is better than that of Grey model in forecasting the electric-power demand.

Keywords

Markov processes; grey systems; load forecasting; Grey forecasting method; Grey-Markov model; Markov chains forecasting method; electric-power demand forecasting; forecasting precision; Cybernetics; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Energy consumption; Energy management; Load forecasting; Machine learning; Power industry; Predictive models; Weather forecasting; Electricity demand; Forecast; GM(1,1); Grey-Markov model; Markov chain;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Kunming

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-2095-7

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-2096-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICMLC.2008.4620595

Filename

4620595