Title :
Forecasting electricity demand using Grey-Markov model
Author :
Wang, Xi-ping ; Meng, Ming
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding
Abstract :
In order to improve the forecasting precision of the electric-power demand, a Grey-Markov model for forecasting the electric-power demand is established. The model combines the advantages of both Grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the Grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the Grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the Grey-Markov model is better than that of Grey model in forecasting the electric-power demand.
Keywords :
Markov processes; grey systems; load forecasting; Grey forecasting method; Grey-Markov model; Markov chains forecasting method; electric-power demand forecasting; forecasting precision; Cybernetics; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Energy consumption; Energy management; Load forecasting; Machine learning; Power industry; Predictive models; Weather forecasting; Electricity demand; Forecast; GM(1,1); Grey-Markov model; Markov chain;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kunming
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2095-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2096-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLC.2008.4620595
