Title :
Population Forecasting in China Based on the Grey-Markov Model
Author :
Juan, Li ; Liu, Wei-jie
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Inf. & Eng., Jingdezhen Ceramic Inst., Jingdezhen, China
Abstract :
The problem of large population is one of the important factors influencing Chinese economy and social advancement. Grasping the exact development trend of population scale can provide scientific suggestions for policy making. According to the number of population in China from 1991 to 2010, grey-Markov model is used to forecast the number of population. The grey model is firstly used to confirm forecasting sequence, and then Markov chain is used to revise the data. The forecasting result shows that the grey-Markov model, which can better improve the forecasting accuracy and effectiveness, is a scientific and effective forecasting model.
Keywords :
Markov processes; demography; government policies; grey systems; China; Chinese economy; Markov chain; forecasting sequence; grey-Markov model; policy making; population forecasting; population trend; social advancement; Data models; Fitting; Forecasting; Markov processes; Predictive models; Markov chain; grey mode; grey-Markov model; population forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering (ICIII), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shenzhen
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-450-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICIII.2011.315
