Title :
Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects
Author :
Ramos-Robles, C.A. ; Irizarry-Rivera, A.A.
Author_Institution :
Puerto Rico Univ., PR, USA
Abstract :
In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; Weibull distribution; least squares approximations; maximum likelihood estimation; power generation economics; risk management; wind power plants; Monte Carlo simulation; Weibull parameter estimation; Weibull probability density function; economical analysis; economical risk assessment; energy production; least squares estimation methods; maximum likelihood estimators; scale factor; shape factor estimation; wind energy projects; Cause effect analysis; Density measurement; Least squares approximation; Maximum likelihood estimation; Parameter estimation; Power generation economics; Probability density function; Production; Shape; Wind energy;
Conference_Titel :
Power Symposium, 2005. Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-9255-8
DOI :
10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595
