Time lag effect in forecasting the amount of construction land

This paper starts with the geographical lag effect, and then demonstrates the limitation of traditional methods about the forecasting of construction land. Through adopting the related software to verify unary regression and multiple regressions in non lag, one year lag, two year lag and three year lag conditions, and see the other social and economic and casual factors as stochastic disturbance. So we can exclude the worse test value conditions, which reflect the degree of lag and its state. This research used the construction land and social and economic data of Huangpi district, Wuhan City from 1987 to 2004 to analyze the lag effect in land forecast. The experiment result shows us the construction land lags the social and economic development level, which actually existing objectively. We should consider the influence coming from time lag effect when we forecast the amount of construction land. The research area´ amount of construction land lag social and economic level approximately 1-2 years. The forecast result which is under lag effect eliminates the bad effects more.