Title :
Wind speed prediction based on Grey Markov model
Author :
Wu, Dan ; Tan, Lunnong
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Electron. Inf. Eng., Jiangsu Univ., Zhenjiang, China
Abstract :
In order to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction, a model that Grey model combine with Markov model is given. Based on the time-ordered and stochastic volatility of the wind speed sequence, using the modeling method of Gray prediction and the characteristics of Markov model which can forecast the stochastic and volatile data, the Grey Markov model for wind speed forecasting is established. The method uses MATLAB to model the Gray model, and the Markov model is used to correct the predictive value of Gray prediction, finally can get the result of prediction. Through the wind speed prediction of a wind farm, the results show that Grey Markov forecasting has high accuracy and it can preferably predict wind speed.
Keywords :
Markov processes; atmospheric techniques; wind; Gray model; Gray prediction; Grey Markov forecasting; Grey Markov model; MATLAB; stochastic data; stochastic volatility; time-ordered volatility; volatile data; wind speed prediction; wind speed sequence; Data models; Forecasting; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Wind forecasting; Wind speed; Markov mode; gray model; wind speed prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Mechanic Automation and Control Engineering (MACE), 2011 Second International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hohhot
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9436-1
DOI :
10.1109/MACE.2011.5988684