Environmental factors limiting numerical sea-ice forecasting in support of polar operations

In recent years there has been a significant increase in requirements for ice information to support off-shore exploration, transportation and naval operations. During this time ice model development has advanced steadily in the treatment of the dynamics and thermodynamics of ice evolution. In this paper practical aspects and limiting factors are presented that must be considered for useful ice forecasts to be obtained operationally from numerical models. Some characteristics and limitations of ice models are discussed.The dependence of model results on initial ice conditions and the external forcing subsequently applied is shown. Emphasis is given to the importance of allowing assimilation of actual ice condition information in ice forecasting systems.