A variance reduction technique to the reliability analysis of a generation/transmission system

The authors describe a variance reduction scheme, known as generalised regression, and its application to the reliability analysis of a generation/transmission system. The proposed scheme is flexible and can accommodate different network models, such as the linearized (DC) or complete (AC). Tests with realistic medium-sized systems gave promising results. The proposed algorithm was applied to the equivalent of a system with approximately 500 buses and 700 circuits. All runs were performed in a PC-386 compatible. All single circuit contingencies were simulated and corresponding load curtailments stored. Time savings were significant: the total computer time was 12 min in the same computer (15 times lower). Tests with different systems resulted in a speedup from 10 to 200 times