The water quality evaluation based on the unascertained Markov forecast model

Applying the unascertained comprehensive evaluation method and Markov forecast to the water quality evaluation, it overcomes not only the uncertainty and randomness in the water quality system, but also the randomness of weight determination, because it uses the attribute hierarchical method to determine weight of every pollution factor objectively. Then, through the monitoring data calculation of south Fei River in the city of Hefei in 1997-2004, it shows not only the forecast model is accurate, but also the result is scientific and reasonable, because of the application of unascertained mathematics method. The application example shows that this model obtains satisfactory results, and provides a way of water quality forecast.