Title :
An improved hydrological forecast method based on chaos and trend term
Author :
Ding Guang-bin ; Ding Jia-feng
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Conservancy & Hydropower, Hebei Univ. of Eng., Handan, China
Abstract :
In this paper, an improved hydrological medium and long-term forecast method based on chaos and trend term is presented. First, the periodic term and trend term of the hydrological time series in the nearest years are analyzed and then using chaotic characteristic analysis for a difference of the residual time series. Finally, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system is applied to predict the residual series for obtaining the prediction result. The computation on an actual case shows that the new method is reliable to not only natural flat flow year but also special low flow year.
Keywords :
chaos; forecasting theory; fuzzy reasoning; geophysics computing; hydrological techniques; time series; adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system; chaotic characteristic analysis; hydrological forecast method; hydrological time series; residual series; residual time series; trend term; Adaptive systems; Chaos; Economic forecasting; Floods; Fuzzy neural networks; Hydrologic measurements; Time series analysis; Uncertainty; Water resources; Weather forecasting; Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system; Chaos; Hydrological forecast; Time series;
Conference_Titel :
Control and Decision Conference, 2009. CCDC '09. Chinese
Conference_Location :
Guilin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2722-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2723-9
DOI :
10.1109/CCDC.2009.5194910
