Title :
Lessons of a recession for transport demand modelling
Author :
Willumsen, L.G. ; Liu, A.
Author_Institution :
Steer Davies Gleave, London, UK
Abstract :
This paper attempts to draw some lessons form the economic crisis of 2008-2009 in respect of transport demand modelling. It looks in the following issues: the poor treatment of uncertainty and risk, the limitations of our best theories of human behaviour, the emphasis in equilibrium modelling and the questions whether more complex and disaggregate models are more accurate tools for forecasting.
Keywords :
economic cycles; transportation; economic crisis; equilibrium modelling; human behaviour theories; recession; transport demand modelling; uncertainty; equilibrium; modelling; recession; uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Advanced Forum on Transportation of China (AFTC 2009), 5th
Conference_Location :
Beijing
DOI :
10.1049/cp.2009.1602
