Innovation risk-utility pathway method applied to dye-sensitized solar cells

New & Emerging Science & Technologies (“NESTs”) are increasingly studied by Future-oriented Technology Analysts because of their potentially important “emerging applications.” However, the high uncertainty and dynamics of NESTs pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. This paper combines methods of risk utility theory and technology path research to explore a new innovation risk-utility pathway modelling method for NESTs development. We illustrate the use of temporal change patterns and leading actor indicators, presenting illustrative results for the development of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC).