Pandemic Influenza, Worker Absenteeism and Impacts on Freight Transportation

A pandemic influenza outbreak could cause serious disruption to operations of several critical infrastructures and concern about the effects of such disruptions is a matter of public concern. This paper focuses on freight transportation services, particularly rail and port operations. It develops models to assess the likely impacts of varying levels of worker absenteeism on the performance of these critical systems. Using current data on performance of specific rail and port facilities, we reach some conclusions about the likelihood of severe operational disruption under varying assumptions about the absentee rate and draw out implications that would be of government concern.