Modeling Network Changes: Systemic Centrality in Foreign Policy Interaction Analysis

The complex network of relationships between countries provides an abundance of data from which intelligence analysts must synthesize useful interpretations that effectively inform foreign policy and security decision making. In this work, a network of foreign policy event interactions is developed and then used to describe the state of the international system by estimating the behavioral distances from all relevant actors to the US. Using a graph theoretic approach, we develop a tool for estimating behavioral distances through direct network links when behavior is present, and indirect network paths when direct behavior is unobserved. The international system is examined in temporal aggregations of 60 and 30 days prior to and following the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Both periods see distancing from the US as the wars approach, and a partial return to the prior state by 60 days after the initiation of conflict. The overall position of the US and the response of other nations towards the US indicates that the systemic leadership role of the US is diminished in behavioral relationships with a moderate number of actors.