Managing by modelling: how to manage the adoption of a new technology

Summary form only given. The author introduces some basic ideas about regularity of change and diffusion models for better understanding and management of changes caused by a new technology. A heuristic diffusion model is described which is a systematized view to the analysis. The main characteristics of the model are modularity of the target and its description by structural values, simplification of the total phenomenon by a key-technology, horizontal expansion of knowledge through analogy, vertical expansion of knowledge through generalization, and indication of emerging technology breakthroughs. The prediction power of the models is a decreasing function of time, whereas the descriptive power is a constant. The descriptive models are used mainly because of the qualitative dynamics built into the (heuristic) model and because of the state-of-the-art view of the target they afford. The explanatory projection can be made using the dynamics of the model