Projection of Automobile Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions with Different Propulsion/Fuel System Scenarios in Beijing

A life cycle analysis method was used to calculate per-kilometer-based fossil fuel energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and different types of electric-powered vehicles: hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and pure electric vehicle (EV) for Beijing. The results show that HEV, PHEV and EV have significant well-to-wheels (WTW) benefits in per-kilometer-based energy saving. Compared with ICEV, HEV, PHEV and EV could reduce 29%, 30% and 40% of per-kilometer-based fossil fuel energy consumption in 2030, respectively. While, the CO₂ reduction benefits for PHEV and EV are less due to the penalty of CO₂ emissions from upstream coal power plants. For example, PHEV and EV could only reduce 15%-20% of per-kilometer-based CO₂ emission relative to ICEV in 2030. We further forecast the total automobile stock in Beijing would reach 8.9-11.0 million by 2030, and four electric-powered vehicle penetration scenarios were designed to evaluate the effect of fleet-based fossil fuel energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction. The WTW fossil fuel energy consumption with base case scenario will reach peak in 2020, about 480×10¹⁵J. The most aggressive scenario (scenario 4) could save 21% of WTW fossil fuel energy compared with base case scenario in 2030. The WTW CO₂ emission of base case scenario will also reach its peak of 35 million tons around 2020. With the promotion of electric vehicles, scenarios 1 to 4 could reduce 5%-16% of WTW CO₂ emissions for the Beijing vehicle fleet compared with base case scenario in 2030.