A real-time generator-angle prediction method based on the modified grey Verhulst model

A novel curve fitting method based on the grey Verhulst model for perturbed trajectory prediction of post-fault rotor angle is presented in this paper. For avoiding self-error in the model, the unbiased grey model is realized. An error correction scheme is proposed for improving the prediction precision by using two new coming phasor measurements to predict the error. Compared with the trigonometric function and the auto regression model, the proposed method has better prediction effects. Numerical simulations are conducted in IEEE 39-bus system and the China Southern Power Grid to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the modified grey Verhulst model works better than the original grey Verhulst model both for the stable and unstable cases.