A density-based dynamic OD estimation method that reproduces within-day congestion dynamics

The OD estimation procedure is of paramount importance in traffic engineering problems. However, existing procedures are built upon the well-known static OD estimation methods, with the result that in practice the estimated OD flows sometimes hardly reproduce current traffic conditions. In this paper we identify the reasons that can cause this problem. Further, we propose a novel density-based OD estimation procedure that outperforms traditional dynamic estimation approaches, which tend to misinterpret the data, confusing free-flow and congestion regimes. The advantage of this approach is shown by performing demand estimation on the highway network around the city of Antwerp, Belgium.