Confidence assessment in model-based structural health monitoring

This paper presents a methodology for confidence assessment in model-based structural health monitoring, using the domain of fatigue crack growth analysis. Several models - finite element model, crack growth model, surrogate model, etc. - are connected through a Bayes network that aids in model calibration, uncertainty quantification, and model validation. Three types of uncertainty are included in both uncertainty quantification and model validation: (1) natural variability in loading and material properties; (2) data uncertainty due to measurement errors, sparse data, and different inspection scenarios (crack not detected, crack detected but size not measured, and crack detected with size measurement); and (3) modeling uncertainty and errors during crack growth analysis, numerical approximations, and finite element discretization. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the overall prediction uncertainty and identify the important parameters that need to be calibrated. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used for model validation and the Bayes factor metric is used to quantify the confidence in the model prediction.