Title :
Improved modeling method of countdown transformation
Author :
Feng, Zheng ; Yong, Wei
Author_Institution :
China West Normal Univ., Nanchong
Abstract :
In this paper, we analyze the model of countdown transformation on the basis of the mechanism of GM(1,1) model, and we conclude that countdown transformation may reduce the precision of GM(1,1) modeling, or countdown transformation may increase the precision of GM(1,1) modeling by some examples. We point out that the main function of increasing the model precision is not the countdown transformation, but lies in the background values optimization in the literature [3]. We propose a method of improving the monotone decreasing sequence in grey modeling prove the advantage of this method in theory. In the end, example illustrates the feasibility and the validity of this method.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; optimisation; background value optimization; countdown transformation modeling method; grey prediction model; monotone decreasing sequence; Data models; Differential equations; Electronic mail; Helium; Intelligent systems; Least squares methods; Mathematics; Parameter estimation; Petroleum; Predictive models;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2007. GSIS 2007. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443328
