Abstract :
The prediction effect of GM(l,n) model is not always satisfied. The known correction methods of residual errors either need preprocess the error data to satisfy specific conditions such as non-negative, quasi-exponential law or require much more data to the train sample. Firstly, the paper improves the traditional accumulated generating operation and provides a kind of Increase accumulated generating operation (IAGO) which generates the required data sequence without high order AGO. Then, the paper proposes a kind of grey composite prediction method based on SVR where GM(1,1) model is used to predict and SVR makes the correction for the GM(l,l)´s prediction results. This method synthetically utilizes the merits of the grey system theory and SVR and thus has higher prediction precision. Especially, the paper provides a heuristic arithmetic of how to ascertain the increase coefficients and obtain the prediction values. Finally, the method is used for the medium-term or long-term forecast of regional economy and displays good application effect.
Keywords :
grey systems; regression analysis; support vector machines; grey composite prediction method; grey system theory; increase accumulated generating operation; quasi-exponential law; support vector regression; Differential equations; Error correction; Information analysis; Neural networks; Prediction methods; Predictive models; Probability; Random processes; Statistical analysis; Sun;