Multiple periods flood disaster evacuation grey decision model

The irreversibility effect of evacuation decision is considered during emergency response. The evacuation decision process can be divided into several periods. The time attribute of grey situation decision is discussed. A framework for a multiple periods of flood disaster evacuation grey decision model is presented. This model approaches the evacuation decision problem by grey decision method and takes into account of the potential flood damage, rate of fatalities and evacuation effect index. The optimal decision (evacuation, no evacuation) is based on minimization of the total expected costs, minimizes the rate of fatalities. The model is tested for evacuation decision of river floods in Netherlands 1995, and the conclusion is in accordance with the result of probabilistic evacuation decision model put forward by Brian Frieser.