Applying Bayesian network to distribution system reliability analysis

This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for distribution-system-reliability assessment and reassessment. The zone-based FMEA technique is applied to construct the BN model. During forward propagation of probabilistic information, load-point and system reliability indices are calculated. And the weak points are identified during backward propagation for what-if studies. A dual isomorphic model is used to obtain outage probabilistic indices as well as outage frequency indices. The application of the proposed method to RBTS-Bus6 shows its superiority and validity.