Latent fault detection in large scale services

Unexpected machine failures, with their resulting service outages and data loss, pose challenges to datacenter management. Existing failure detection techniques rely on domain knowledge, precious (often unavailable) training data, textual console logs, or intrusive service modifications. We hypothesize that many machine failures are not a result of abrupt changes but rather a result of a long period of degraded performance. This is confirmed in our experiments, in which over 20% of machine failures were preceded by such latent faults. We propose a proactive approach for failure prevention. We present a novel framework for statistical latent fault detection using only ordinary machine counters collected as standard practice. We demonstrate three detection methods within this framework. Derived tests are domain-independent and unsupervised, require neither background information nor tuning, and scale to very large services. We prove strong guarantees on the false positive rates of our tests.