On wind generated surface current model identification

Timeseries for residual surface current and wind are analysed to identify simple models for wind generated ocean current. Stochastic models based upon inertial fluctuations allow simple and accurate prediction of surface current and its prediction error over a few hours lead time, and also qualitative good predictions over tens of days lead time. However, stable and "subjectively reasonable" parameter estimation and qualitative model verification is not achieved. The estimation difficulty and prediction accuracy may be consistent due to large scale model errors.