Ocean Surface Wave Prediction,-Current Trends and Future Prospects

Numerical spectral ocean surface wave prediction models are used increasingly for the preparation of operational wave forecasts, wave climate assessment, and specification of design data for coastal end offshore structures. Recently, an international group of wave modellers intercompared ten first- and second-generation wave models in the Sea Wave Modeling Project (SWAMP), and found surprisingly large differences in model behavior and performance. The activities of SWAMP have been continued by the WAM (Wave Modelers) group, who are engaged in the development of a third-generation model based upon improved representations of physical processes of wave growth, wave-wave interactions, and wave dissipation. Third-generation models will likely be in widespread use by the end of the decade, and promise, together with satellite-based ocean wind and wave measurement systems, to provide accurate and timely global scale specifications of the directional wave spectrum, and wave forecasts whose accuracy will be limited only by errors in numerical weather forecast systems.