Simulation on the consumer innovation diffusion behavior in the environment of electronic commerce

This paper focuses on the consumer innovation diffusion behavior simulation in the environment of electronic commerce by means of Agentsheets software. Firstly, it has been discussed that the consumer innovation diffusion behavior has been influenced by such factors, which mainly consist of mass-media, human relation, marketing strategy and network safe. After the characteristics of the famous Bass diffusion model having been analyzed, the limitations of Bass model on the consumer innovation diffusion behavior simulation have been set forward. Then according to the rational supposition of the simulation of consumer innovation diffusion behavior, the latent consumers are divided into three types: innovators, imitators and laggards, and different types of consumers are influenced by mass-media, human relation and marketing strategy differently in a way. And then the simulation structure and simulation process have been designed on condition that the diffusion coefficients among three kinds of people are both uncertain and unlike. What\´s more, the simulation software Agentsheets has been used to carry out the simulation. Simulation results show different types of consumers are relative to different diffusion curve slopes. On the predefined variable coefficients, the curve of the consumer innovation diffusion process is similar to the "S" shape curves. If the diffusion coefficient is changed, the slope of the curve is also changed in some degree but the basic form is still the same. Finally, based on the simulation results, reference guides to electronic businesses to make relative marketing decisions have been set up