Stochastic analysis on probability of fire scenarios in risk assessment to occupant evacuation

Author

Chu, Guanquan ; Wang, Jinhui

Author_Institution

Minist. of Transp., Waterborne Transp. Inst., Beijing, China

fYear

2009

fDate

8-11 Dec. 2009

Firstpage

2444

Lastpage

2448

Abstract

This study presents a framework of stochastic analysis on probability of fire scenarios in risk assessment to occupant evacuation. Probable fire scenarios were constructed by event tree with consideration of fire protection systems and manual intervention. Uncertainty of probability values of fire protection systems and manual intervention were analyzed by coupling fire dynamics model and Monte Carlo simulation based on stochastic input data, such as lognormal fire growth rate. Then, probability of fire scenarios was analyzed as variables with time.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; emergency services; fires; risk management; stochastic processes; Monte Carlo simulation; event tree; fire dynamics model; fire protection systems; fire scenarios probability; lognormal fire growth rate; occupant evacuation; risk assessment; stochastic analysis; Buildings; Fires; Ignition; Protection; Risk analysis; Risk management; Safety; Stochastic processes; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; event tree; fire scenario; risk assessment;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2009. IEEM 2009. IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Hong Kong

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-4869-2

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-4870-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IEEM.2009.5372940

Filename

5372940