Time Series Analysis of Energy Consumption for Tianjin City

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, cities have become the centers to address the problem of climate change for China. Tianjin city plays an important role to boost the economy of North China according to the long-term development planning of China. Since a large amount of energy will be needed, the CO₂ emission will be much more concerned. And it is essential for Tianjin to promote energy efficiency and reduce the CO₂ emission intensity. The study explores the characteristics of the energy consumption of Tianjin city through time series analysis, and compares it with Beijing and Shanghai, which helps give some advice for the energy conservation of Tianjin city in the future. We conclude that the consumption of energy has been increasing continuously, with an annual growth rate of 8.9% during the period of 2000-2008. And Tianjin has been one of the provinces with rapidest growth of energy consumption. The total energy consumption amount has magnified by approximately 3.3 times from 1620×10⁴ tons of SCE in 1985 to 5364×10⁴ tons of SCE in 2008. The energy consumption per capita of Tianjin increases from 2.01 tons of SCE per capita in 1985 to 5.54 tons of SCE per capita in 2008, which is lower than that of Shanghai city and also China as a whole, while it is higher than that of Beijing. In the last ten years, the composition of energy consumption of Tinjian remained relatively steady with 2.6 percent increase for Coal, 8.8 percent decrease for oil and 2.8 percent increase of natural gas. The energy intensity of Tianjin has declined from 9.22 tons of SCE in 1985 to 0.84 tons of SCE in 2008. But it is higher than that of Shanghai and Beijing. Thus, we suggest that Tianjin should pay more attention to improve the technological progress of the industrial sectors. And the composition of energy consumption should be optimized to reduce the CO₂ emission intensity.