Combination of arrival rate prediction method and the G/G/1/K polling system with k-limited service discipline

In this paper, we proposed an arrival rate prediction method to combine with the previously developed ordinal optimization (OO) theory based algorithm for the G/G/1/K polling system with the k-limited service discipline so as to achieve the real-time application purpose. We employ the Box-Jenkins method for predicting the arrival rate every ¿t period, which is the computation time of the OO theory based algorithm. The predicted arrival rates will serve as the current arrival rates in the OO theory based algorithm. We have tested the proposed method by comparing with the cases of using the actual arrival rate at t + ¿t, which is considered as the ideal case, and the arrival rate at t, which is considered as the case without prediction, in the OO theory based algorithm. The test results show that the performance of the case without prediction is 11.6% worse than the ideal case, while the proposed method achieves a performance of only 4.5% worse than the ideal case.