Forecast of Subsidy for Purchasing Agricultural Machinery Based on Life Cycle Theory in China

Subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery in many developed countries showed the periodic characteristic. In order to learn their experiences, trace the laws for the financial support of China, provide theoretical support in policy making in developing countries. The characters of subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery in China have been analyzed in this paper. There are three stages of the central financial subsidy since 2004 when the policy came into effect, including the initial stage, growth stage and maturity stage. The speed of increasing is slow, high and stable respectively in the three stages and the growth curve is approximately "S-shape". After analyzing the typical characters of the investment scale, implement region, subsidized machinery types and subsidized groups, the subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery is forecasted by Life Cycle Theory and Logistic Growth Model. The result shows that central financial subsidies are expected to total about 97 billion RMB from 2011 to 2015. And it will reach 19.8 billion RMB in 2015.