Simulation of Coordinated Development of an Urban Ecosystem: A Case Study in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration

Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, a set of relatively integrated evaluation indexes was developed to analyze the urban planning process in Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Key impact factors of coordinated development obtained from literature analysis were used as input, and the degree of coordinated development during 1988~2008 calculated by principal component analysis and the coordinated development model were used as output. On this basis, a support vector machine model was built to predict the trends of coordinated development. The method was compared with artificial neural network, decision tree, logistic regression and naive Bayesian classifier regarding urban ecosystem coordinated development prediction for Guanzhong urban agglomeration. It is found that the method has the best accuracy rate, hit rate, covering rate and lift coefficient, and provides an effective measurement for urban ecosystem coordinated development prediction.