Forecast Model of Civil Aviation Passenger Transportation Volume Based on System Dynamics

In order to resolve the traditional forecasting methods which do not consider the factors affecting the civil aviation passenger transportation volume, this paper sets up system dynamic model to forecast civil aviation passenger transportation volume. This model can consider the main influence factors and set up scientific linking between these factors. It will help us make reasonable and scientific decision. The proposed model is also verified by simulation using statistical data and used to forecast the civil aviation passenger transportation volume in China in the next 10 years. The result shows that the model is effective and feasible.