Title :
A model for technology anticipation
Author :
Brown, Thomas V. ; Meyer, Roland
Author_Institution :
General Res. Corp., Dayton, OH, USA
Abstract :
A method for estimating the likelihood that new technical systems can be developed is described. The method includes alternative ways of implementing system functions. Each technology component is included within a technology structure that describes alternative ways in which the system can be implemented. The probability of each component is estimated as a function of time. The method combines these probabilities in a mathematically correct way to estimate the overall probability. The entire method has been programmed in a PROLOG program to produce both overall probabilities and a sensitivity analysis showing how sensitive this probability is to each component. The sensitivity is based on the resulting linear equations produced by the method
Keywords :
PROLOG; probability; technological forecasting; PROLOG program; likelihood; linear equations; probability; sensitivity analysis; system functions; technology anticipation; Cost function; Equations; Failure analysis; Machinery; Mathematical model; Particle beams; Sensitivity analysis; Technology planning; Weapons;
Conference_Titel :
Aerospace and Electronics Conference, 1988. NAECON 1988., Proceedings of the IEEE 1988 National
Conference_Location :
Dayton, OH
DOI :
10.1109/NAECON.1988.195219
