Random uncertain model for natural disaster risk parameters

Author

Li Xiang-yang ; Li Ying-xiong ; Huang Xiang-yue

Author_Institution

Sch. of Manage., Harbin Inst. of Technol., Harbin, China

fYear

2012

fDate

20-22 Sept. 2012

Firstpage

188

Lastpage

193

Abstract

This paper introduces the general natural disaster mechanism, defines the disaster factors, object at exposure, disaster environment and conditions. Disaster factor model is developed to calculate the occurrence probability of the natural disaster, which is binary choice model, therefore coefficients estimation approach is logistic regression. The loss rate model is given to assess the impact of the disaster; this model is a linear model. A case about snow & ice disaster appeared in four provinces of south china is studied; empirical distribution function of random variable is shown in this paper.

Keywords

disasters; emergency management; ice; probability; random processes; regression analysis; risk management; snow; uncertain systems; South China provinces; binary choice model; coefficients estimation approach; disaster conditions; disaster environment; disaster factor model; disaster impact assessment; empirical distribution function; ice disaster; linear model; logistic regression; loss rate model; natural disaster risk parameters; occurrence probability; random uncertain model; random variable; snow disaster; Analytical models; Data models; Distribution functions; Floods; Mathematical model; Random variables; Snow; disaster loss rate model; logistic regression; natural disaster factor model; natural disaster structure model; random uncertain variable;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE), 2012 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Dallas, TX

ISSN

2155-1847

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-3015-2

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICMSE.2012.6414181

Filename

6414181