The probability aspect of CALS (computer-aided logistic support)

Several software packages used for computer-aided logistic support (CALS) are examined. Relationships between probability of success, life cycle cost and logistic support parameters are discussed. The aspects of three classes of CALS software are examined with respect to how they could be used to combine probability and cost. The three program classes are: (1) Monte Carlo, (2) Markov, and (3) military costing. It is concluded that Monte Carlo is most realistic for probability of success but that Markov programs are better than costing alone, and that military costing formulae could be revised for use with the probability programs or the probability programs could be expanded to include costs