Information System Reliability Prediction Based on Evidential Reasoning Approach with Audit Evidence

To develop a new analysis method which can link the reliability prediction for information system with audit evidences quantitatively, this study proposes a prediction model based on evidential reasoning framework with audit evidences. Information system audit is employed to obtain qualitative and quantitative evidence which can be used to estimate system reliability. Then, a model is developed to link the prediction of system reliability at some future time points with obtained assessment results. This model can handle qualitative assessment and quantitative data with uncertain information, and to support the self-adjustment of model parameters. It is shown that this method can help maintainers track the system performance and achieve pre-maintenance.